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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 16:25 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 15.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

TEN
13.8%
IND
86.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Cam Ward (TEN): -0.280 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TEN 16
–
IND 30
Projected margin: IND by 14 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TEN

Calvin Ridley WR Out Hamstring
Blake Hance G Out Shoulder
Jeffery Simmons DT Out Hamstring
Bryce Oliver WR Out Knee
Xavier Woods S Questionable Ankle
Arden Key LB Questionable Quadricep

IND

Samson Ebukam DE Out Knee
Tyquan Lewis DE Out Groin
Jaylon Jones CB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 14
–
IND 38

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:48 FG IND (9:48) 12-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TEN 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 00:15 TD IND (:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 9
  • Q2 11:19 TD TEN (11:19) 72-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 1-C.Ward pass short right to 84-G.Helm for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – IND 10
  • Q2 07:51 TD IND (7:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. TEN 7 – IND 16
  • Q3 11:22 TD IND (11:22) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – IND 23
  • Q3 05:18 TD IND (5:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 1-J.Downs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-18-J.Armour-Davis, Defensive Holding, declined. TEN 7 – IND 30
  • Q4 14:28 TD IND (14:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 28-J.Taylor for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – IND 37
  • Q4 02:40 TD TEN (2:40) 2-T.Spears left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – IND 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 17 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (9:48) 12-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:17) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to IND 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 27 for 20 yards (3-J.Hekker).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:25) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to IND 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 37 for 13 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson; 30-K.Brooks).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 19 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 42%

    (1:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to IND 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 57%

    (11:30) 3-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:45) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to IND 26, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 52%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 46 for -10 yards (99-D.Buckner).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 69%

    (:12) 28-J.Taylor left end pushed ob at TEN 33 for 4 yards (28-Q.Diggs).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 95%

    (7:01) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle intended for 17-C.Dike INTERCEPTED by 38-C.Lammons at IND -3. Touchback.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (2:40) 2-T.Spears left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.