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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Tennessee Titans
4th & 3 at the 44
Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 31
What Actually Happened
(1:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 46 for -10 yards (99-D.Buckner).
The Three Options
GO
+0.26 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP
KICK
-0.56 EP
- 52% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
- 48% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
