4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 12-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model