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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 38 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model