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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 2 at the 3
Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 38
What Actually Happened
(2:40) 2-T.Spears left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.03 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.32 EP
- 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth -0.23 EP
KICK
+1.88 EP
- 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT
-0.41 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
