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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to BAL 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-L.Wester to BAL 23 for 17 yards (3-K.Britt).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.17 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model