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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Thursday 2025-10-30 · 20:15 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

BAL
50.4%
MIA
49.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.283 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BAL starting Lamar Jackson in place of Tyler Huntley)
  • MIA defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 25
–
MIA 24
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

BAL

No players on the report.

MIA

Julian Hill TE Out Ankle
Ashtyn Davis S Doubtful Quadricep
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Shoulder
Dee Eskridge WR Questionable Shoulder
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Questionable Thumb
Jason Marshall Jr. CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 28
–
MIA 6

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:11 FG MIA (12:11) 47-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. BAL 0 – MIA 3
  • Q1 08:30 TD BAL (8:30) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – MIA 3
  • Q2 14:17 TD BAL (14:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – MIA 3
  • Q2 08:02 FG MIA (8:02) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. BAL 14 – MIA 6
  • Q3 08:14 TD BAL (8:14) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 88-C.Kolar for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – MIA 6
  • Q3 04:22 TD BAL (4:22) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-Jo.Phillips]. Penalty on MIA-23-J.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. BAL 27 – MIA 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 78%

    (12:11) 47-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:37) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to MIA 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-39-K.Jackson.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (8:30) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (2:40) 47-R.Patterson 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%

    (10:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to BAL 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-L.Wester to BAL 23 for 17 yards (3-K.Britt).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:05) 11-J.Stout punts 60 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-N.Moore. 6-M.Washington to BAL 39 for 35 yards (11-J.Stout). PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 87%

    (8:02) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (5:47) 11-J.Stout punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (1:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 28-D.Achane.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65%

    (:41) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 6-M.Washington to MIA 19 for 3 yards (27-T.Tampa).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to 50, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-46-I.Johnson. PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (2:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to BAL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 40%

    (:26) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 48%

    (13:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 19-C.Wilson to BAL 37 for 7 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 63%

    (11:39) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (2-N.Wiggins).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:09) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.