Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 86

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 11-J.Stout punts 60 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-N.Moore. 6-M.Washington to BAL 39 for 35 yards (11-J.Stout). PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.57 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 86, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model