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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 47-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.56 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP