4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to MIA 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-39-K.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model