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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(:26) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.99 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model