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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(11:39) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (2-N.Wiggins).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.13 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -3.22 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model