Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Miami Dolphins 6

(8:09) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.18 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model