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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 17

Miami Dolphins 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 47-R.Patterson 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model