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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 71

Houston Texans 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 6-T.Townsend punts 67 yards to DEN 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 14 for 10 yards (11-T.Smith; 56-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP