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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

DEN
48.3%
HOU
51.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Bo Nix (DEN): +0.163 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DEN

P.J. Locke S Out Neck
Pat Surtain II CB Out Pectoral
Nate Adkins TE Out Knee
Marvin Mims Jr. WR Out Concussion

HOU

Jakob Johnson FB Out Hamstring
Alijah Huzzie CB Out Knee
Denico Autry DE Questionable Knee
Dalton Schultz TE Questionable Knee
Dylan Horton DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 18
–
HOU 15

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:07 FG HOU (:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. DEN 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 07:15 FG HOU (7:15) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. DEN 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 04:58 TD DEN (4:58) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter]. DEN 6 – HOU 6
  • Q2 01:55 FG HOU (1:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. DEN 7 – HOU 9
  • Q2 00:02 FG HOU (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. ** Injury Update: DEN-99-Z.Allen has returned to the game. DEN 7 – HOU 12
  • Q3 09:22 FG HOU (9:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. DEN 7 – HOU 15
  • Q4 12:34 TD DEN (12:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 12-R.Harvey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – HOU 15
  • Q4 00:03 FG DEN (:03) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on HOU-11-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined. DEN 18 – HOU 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 82%

    (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at DEN 28 for 2 yards (29-J.McMillian).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 79%

    (7:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

    (4:34) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel to HOU 21 for no gain (34-J.Skinner).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:43) 6-T.Townsend punts 67 yards to DEN 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 14 for 10 yards (11-T.Smith; 56-J.Hill).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%

    (1:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:11) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to HOU 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-26-D.Key.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-22-J.Smith at DEN 30.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:25) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to HOU 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at DEN 47 for 45 yards (92-D.Tillman; 40-J.Strnad).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (9:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:07) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to HOU 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 29 for 11 yards (48-M.Fraboni). HOU-52-D.Taylor was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-48-M.Fraboni, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 29.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 42%

    (5:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to DEN 12, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (3:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 67 yards to HOU 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 39, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:53) 6-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DEN 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 20 for 12 yards (11-T.Smith; 22-J.Smith).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:57) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to HOU 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 26 for 6 yards (52-J.Elliss). PENALTY on DEN-34-J.Skinner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:13) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 76 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (4:49) 6-T.Townsend punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 37%

    (1:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to DEN 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 36 for 8 yards (35-J.Hansen).