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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 30

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at DEN 28 for 2 yards (29-J.McMillian).

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.48 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model