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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 48

Houston Texans 15 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to DEN 12, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.98 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP