4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 81

Houston Texans 15 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 39, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP