Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 78

Denver Broncos 15 – Houston Texans 15

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to HOU 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 26 for 6 yards (52-J.Elliss). PENALTY on DEN-34-J.Skinner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model