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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 56

Houston Texans 15 – Denver Broncos 15

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.25 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP