Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 76

Denver Broncos 15 – Houston Texans 15

(6:13) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 76 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.39 EP
55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model