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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 73

Houston Texans 15 – Denver Broncos 15

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 6-T.Townsend punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.09 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model