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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 50

Denver Broncos 15 – Houston Texans 15

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.05 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -1.52 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model