Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 83

Houston Texans 15 – Denver Broncos 15

(1:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to DEN 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 36 for 8 yards (35-J.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.50 EP
55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model