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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 33

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model