Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 65

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 3

(14:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel to HOU 21 for no gain (34-J.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.06 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model