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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 37
Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0
What Actually Happened
(11:35) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Mayer [47-D.Gardeck].
The Three Options
GO
+1.88 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.63 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.56 EP
KICK
+0.57 EP
- 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 31% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT
+0.06 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
