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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

JAX
59.1%
LV
40.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to JAX: Geno Smith (LV) -0.049 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.004 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 26
–
LV 21
Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

JAX

Eric Murray S Out Neck
Tim Patrick WR Out Groin
Quintin Morris TE Out Groin
Travis Hunter WR Out Knee
Devin Lloyd LB Questionable Calf

LV

Lonnie Johnson S Out Fibula
Aidan O'Connell QB Out Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 30
–
LV 29

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 00:39 TD LV (:39) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers (6-G.Newsome). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – LV 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG JAX (:04) 39-C.Little 68 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – LV 6
  • Q3 09:57 FG JAX (9:57) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – LV 6
  • Q3 06:29 FG LV (6:29) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. Penalty on LV-70-S.Forsythe, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Disqualification, offsetting. JAX 6 – LV 9
  • Q4 14:55 TD JAX (14:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – LV 9
  • Q4 09:45 TD LV (9:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – LV 15
  • Q4 04:10 TD JAX (4:10) 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – LV 16
  • Q4 02:00 TD LV (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – LV 22
  • Q4 00:20 FG JAX (:20) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 23 – LV 23
  • Q5 03:26 TD JAX (3:26) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 29 – LV 23
  • Q5 00:20 TD LV (:20) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 30 – LV 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 32 yards to LV 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 24.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:44) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to JAX 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-P.Washington to JAX 17 for 4 yards (87-M.Mayer).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 96%

    (4:33) 70-C.Van Lanen reported in as eligible. 33-B.Tuten up the middle to LV 11 for 4 yards (52-E.Roberts; 45-D.White).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 69%

    (11:35) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Mayer [47-D.Gardeck].

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 20 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 47%

    (5:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to LV 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (9:57) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (6:29) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. Penalty on LV-70-S.Forsythe, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Disqualification, offsetting.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left end to LV 7 for 6 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 82%

    (:20) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.