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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 32 yards to LV 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.61 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP