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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. Penalty on LV-70-S.Forsythe, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Disqualification, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP