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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(:20) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.71 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model