4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to KC 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for 5 yards (41-R.Gilliam). PENALTY on BUF-26-Ty.Johnson, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at KC 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model