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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 16:25 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

KC
45.2%
BUF
54.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.191 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.199 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.216 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 26
–
BUF 27
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

KC

Isiah Pacheco RB Out Knee
Josh Simmons T Out Not injury related - personal matter
Jaylon Moore T Questionable Illness
Trey Smith G Questionable Back

BUF

DaQuan Jones DT Out Calf
Shaq Thompson LB Out Hamstring
Josh Palmer WR Out Knee
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 21
–
BUF 28

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:05 TD BUF (8:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD KC (15:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 4-R.Rice. 4-R.Rice right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – BUF 7
  • Q2 09:31 FG KC (9:31) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 10 – BUF 7
  • Q2 06:42 TD BUF (6:42) (No Huddle) 26-Ty.Johnson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – BUF 13
  • Q2 01:35 TD BUF (1:35) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard to KC 1 for no gain (6-B.Cook; 54-L.Chenal). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – BUF 20
  • Q2 00:06 FG KC (:06) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 13 – BUF 21
  • Q3 01:38 TD BUF (1:38) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – BUF 27
  • Q4 11:34 TD KC (11:34) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – BUF 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 37 yards to BUF 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 30 for 3 yards (21-J.Hicks).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 39%

    (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir (6-B.Cook) [56-G.Karlaftis].

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:57) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to KC 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for 5 yards (41-R.Gilliam). PENALTY on BUF-26-Ty.Johnson, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at KC 21.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 83%

    (9:31) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 60%

    (4:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 4-R.Rice (24-C.Bishop).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (:06) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to BUF 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 36%

    (8:49) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-56-J.Solomon.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 17 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 4-R.Rice pushed ob at BUF 11 for 29 yards (24-C.Bishop).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (11:34) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 18 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 25%

    (6:52) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to KC 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 72%

    (:27) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.