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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 28

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.28 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP