4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(:06) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +4.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.89 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 1, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EP