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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to BUF 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.12 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model