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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-56-J.Solomon.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model