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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 28 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to KC 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.51 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model