4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 28 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(:27) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.35 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model