4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 37 yards to BUF 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 30 for 3 yards (21-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model