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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 40

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model