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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIN
15.1%
DET
84.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.268 vs J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.534 EPA/dropback (MIN starting J.J. McCarthy in place of Carson Wentz)
  • MIN offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET on 3 more days rest than MIN

Predicted Final Score

MIN 18
–
DET 29
Projected margin: DET by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

MIN

C.J. Ham FB Out Hand
Josh Oliver TE Out Foot
Jeff Okudah CB Out Concussion
Brian O'Neill T Questionable Knee
Andrew Van Ginkel LB Questionable Neck
Josh Metellus S Questionable Foot
Christian Darrisaw T Questionable Knee

DET

Craig Reynolds RB Out Hamstring
Daniel Thomas S Out Forearm
Malcolm Rodriguez LB Out Knee
Kerby Joseph S Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Avonte Maddox CB Questionable Hamstring
Sione Vaki RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 27
–
DET 24

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:51 TD DET (12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 10:20 TD MIN (10:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 7
  • Q1 04:13 TD MIN (4:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – DET 7
  • Q2 09:43 TD DET (9:43) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 14 – DET 13
  • Q2 04:46 FG MIN (4:46) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 17 – DET 14
  • Q3 06:13 TD MIN (6:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy scrambles right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – DET 14
  • Q3 00:15 FG DET (:15) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 24 – DET 17
  • Q4 03:33 FG MIN (3:33) 16-W.Reichard 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 27 – DET 17
  • Q4 02:00 TD DET (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 1-J.Williams pushed ob at MIN 3 for 34 yards (2-I.Rodgers). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 1-J.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – DET 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 62%

    (12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:58) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to MIN 36, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-18-I.TeSlaa.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 16 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:38) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to MIN 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-13-T.Felton, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at MIN 13.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:08) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to MIN 48, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to MIN 35 for 13 yards (36-Z.Scott; 85-B.Yurosek).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (9:43) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:21) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to MIN 25, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:35) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to MIN 4, Center-49-H.Hatten. 4-M.Price to MIN 11 for 7 yards (33-S.Vaki).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 37%

    (12:37) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to DET 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (11:31) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to MIN 30, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 47%

    (9:26) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to DET 7, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 9 for 2 yards (37-T.Thomas).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 17 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

    (:15) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:16) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to DET 25, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIN-37-T.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DET 25.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 60%

    (10:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to MIN 24 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith; 44-J.Metellus).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (3:33) 16-W.Reichard 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.