4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 62

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(:35) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to MIN 4, Center-49-H.Hatten. 4-M.Price to MIN 11 for 7 yards (33-S.Vaki).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model