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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to DET 7, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 9 for 2 yards (37-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.39 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model