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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 23

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(:15) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.60 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model