Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to DET 25, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIN-37-T.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DET 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.77 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model