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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 41

Detroit Lions 17 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(10:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to MIN 24 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith; 44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.31 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model