Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 96

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Detroit Lions 7

(14:08) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to MIN 48, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to MIN 35 for 13 yards (36-Z.Scott; 85-B.Yurosek).

The Three Options

GO -3.87 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.41 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 96, worth -5.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model