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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 3 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to LA 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model